Fantasy Football Sleepers by Week and Season

Last year I watched the week one Monday Night games from the Keno seats outside the Caesar’s sportsbook in Vegas (I was on my laptop so I couldn’t sit in the sportsbook). I had missed my red-eye flight home on Sunday night so decided to stick around and watch the double MNF games. On their first offensive play of the season the Denver Broncos Cutler handed the ball off to Royal in an End Around. I was watching Royal specifically - I had competed in the World Championship of Fantasy Football draft that weekend in Vegas and one of my league mates drafted Royal in the 9th round. He was hardly even showing up on ADP charts at the time, so this was shocking to me. However, it turned out to be a great pick. Royal was a top 15 WR in the WCOFF scoring format. After that first End Around I knew something was up and picked up Royal in every league that had an open Waiver Wire. Cutler to Royal went on to connect 9 times for 146 yards that game.

What’s my point with all this? Royal was a SUPER sleeper last year in PPR leagues. He was rarely even drafted. Jay Cutler’s precise and daring arm was a huge reason Royal was such a big factor. Cutler’s arm now moves on to Chicago, where we find a slew of unheralded WRs (just like Royal was). Devin Hester is the #1 and he is being drafted around the 8th to 10th round. That could prove to be solid value, making Hester a bit of a sleeper in my book. Orton’s embarrassing long bombs that missed a wide open Hester by 20 yards are a thing of the past. Hester’s numbers will take a big jump, but he’s not the true sleeper here.

Earl Bennett will be the biggest beneficiary of the Cutler trade. This second year WR set the SEC career receptions record in only three seasons. Bennett’s QB in his rookie season was none other than Jay Cutler, and they were quite the dynamic duo. They are reunited and OTA’s proved Bennett the clear #2 WR. The situation in Chicago is drastically different than the one Cutler and Royal faced in Denver. I’m not saying Cutler to Bennett will produce a top 15 fantasy WR, but I am saying that Bennett could easily catch 75 balls this season. Expect Bennett to get surprisingly close to 1000 yards ad score 5-7 TDs. For guys in deeper leagues Bennett is a true diamond in the rough. He’s currently going between the 13th and 15th rounds as a WR5 or 6.

Bernard Berrian and Sidney Rice - Brett Favre is coming back and these two guys stand to be major beneficiaries. Berrian was a top 25 WR last season despite catching under 70 balls. I expect his receptions, yards, and TDs to rise with Favre under center. Don’t be surprised if Berrian cracks the top 15 WR list. He’s currently going as the 27th WR, behind guys like Eddie Royal, DeSean Jackson, and Lee Evans. This will be Berrian’s first season with a quality QB - skip the other guys and take a chance on his upside. Berrian’s counterpart, red zone specialist Sidney Rice, will also see a nice jump. His current ADP of 199 represents great value. If you’re in a deep league take a stab at him instead of duds like Muhsin Muhammed.

Steve Smith Lite - You may remember this offseason that the Giants offered a 2nd and 5th round pick plus Domenik Hixon or Mario Manningham to the Browns for Braylon Edwards. Reports say the Browns countered with a 2nd and 5th plus Steve Smith, but the Giants turned it down. That tells me that NY has big plans for Smith. The talented receiver will be a chain mover this season. Expect him to have the most targets on this team by a significant margin. In PPR leagues I think he will be a solid WR4. He should be the first Giants receiver off the board, but for some reason he’s being drafted behind both Hixon and newcomer Hakeem Nicks. Nix, Hixon, and Manningham may all compete for playing time at flanker this season while Smith will be the steady presence.

2009 fantasy football drafts are ripe with sleeper picks.  The RB list is deeper than ever, causing many breakout candidates to go unnoticed until the double digit rounds.  There are gifted and enticing rookies that could have the Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, or Eddie Royal type impact.  As always, there are also plenty of veterans on new teams or in new systems that could flourish in their altered surroundings.  We’ll list some of the top ones here with brief descriptions and then later add more detailed posts about the best ones.

Julius Jones - Jones may be the best value in drafts right now.  Jim Mora and OC Greg Knapp know how to build a running game.  Many thought the Seahawks would address RB in the draft or in free agency, but they didn’t.  They must like what they have in Julius Jones and TJ Duckett.  Duckett has been an effective runner for Knapp before, but it remains to be seen how much of the load the big guy can still carry.  Jones could get 70% of the workload here, which would make him a lock to pass 1000 total yards.  If he can squeeze in 4-7 TDs he’ll be one of the best RB3’s in the league, but you can get him in the 9th -11th rounds at the price of an RB4.

Derrick Ward - Ward’s current ADP of 65 is just silly.  Tampa’s power running game will be a perfect fit for the Giants transfer.  Graham will be a factor at the goal line and will be used to spell Ward, but consider Ward a feature back.  There are no real holes in his game.  He should receive around 70% of the carries and almost all of the passes out of the backfield.  He will even have some goal line carries with Graham plowing through as his lead blocker.  His TD upside is around 10, and I think 5 is a worst case scenario.  Ward has Top RB2 upside but is being drafted in the fifth round.  If you find yourself going RB, WR, WR in your first three rounds, confidently grab Ward in the fourth, especially in PPR leagues.

Pierre Thomas - How can someone who finished the 2008 season so strongly be so unheralded going into 2009?  McAllister is out and Bush is clearly not a load carrier.  Thomas is going to have a lot of time in the backfield when Bush is lined up at receiver or on the sidelines nursing his knee.  PT Cruiser can catch out of the backfield, plow the short yards, and break the long run.  With Brees spreading the field expect to see all three of those regularly.  The latest news is that he’s bulked up in the offseason and Peyton has expressed confidence in him as the main ball carrier.  If you go crazy and extrapolate his late 2008 stats then he is easily a top 5 back in 2009.  Realistically I would be targeting him as an RB2 in the late second round, but at this point in mock drafts you can get him in the third or fourth.  If someone is able to go RB, WR, WR, RB and pick up Thomas as his second RB then I’ll go ahead and call him the frontrunner in his league.  Pierre’s upside is tremendous in that offense.  I expect his ADP to climb significantly as we get closer to the regular season, unfortunately.

Larry Johnson - I just participated in an early draft done entirely through Twitter and Larry Johnson went in the 7th round, pick 77 overall.  Just a few years ago this guy was dominating fantasy football.  Injuries and general Asshole-ishness have cost him a lot of opportunities, but he’s still an incredible talent.  Haley can talk a big game about not caring about LJ, but in the end he needs to put his best team on the field.  Haley has the weapons he needs to produce a little bit of offense, and LJ could be the biggest beneficiary.  This is especially true now that Red Zone Hawk Tony Gonzalez is out of the picture.  Look for LJ to find the end zone early and often this season.  He should rise into the RB2 ranks, but you can easily snatch him up as an RB3.